Hurricane Melissa is expected to become a rare Category 5 storm as it turns toward Jamaica, causing life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.
The cyclone, which had winds of up to 195 km/h as of 0600 GMT, is currently turning northwest in the Caribbean and is expected to make landfall on Tuesday, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).
It warns of power outages and damage to infrastructure as Melissa produces up to 30 inches of rain and sea level rises of up to 13 feet above the ground. “Find shelter now,” residents have been told.
Melissa is the 13th hurricane of this year’s Atlantic season, which typically ends in November.
A category five hurricane is the strongest type, with winds of at least 155 miles per hour.
While Melissa is expected to weaken to category four before reaching Jamaica, the NHC said there was “very little practical difference in the overall impact” at landfall, and that the hurricane will be “at least that intensity” when it hits the island.
With tropical storm force winds and rain expected well before it passes over central Jamaica – including possibly the capital Kingston – the report warns that “preparations must be completed as a matter of urgency.”
“A multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall has begun and will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides,” the meteorological agency urged residents.
Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness said: “I know there are many Jamaicans who are concerned, who are very concerned, and rightly so: you should be concerned.
“But the best way to tackle fear, nervousness and anxiety is to be prepared.”
Residents are told to secure their homes with sandbags and wooden planks and stock up on basic supplies.
Warnings are also in effect in parts of Haiti, including the capital Port au Prince, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba, where Melissa is expected to have similar impacts by the middle of next week.
Landslides caused by the hurricane have already claimed two lives in Haiti, the National Civil Protection Agency said.
Melissa is expected to pass through Cuba on Wednesday before heading into the Atlantic Ocean via the Antillas Mayores.
By the time it reaches Cuba, it is expected to have weakened to a category three storm.
While it is difficult to link individual weather events to climate change, scientists say it is making weather phenomena more common and severe.
Warmer oceans produce more moisture in the air, encouraging the formation of hurricanes.
Ahead of the start of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast above-normal activity, citing warmer seas and possibly stronger monsoon activity around West Africa – where Atlantic storms often occur.
